Probably Football

Matches

Challenger Pro League (Belgium)

Saturday 31 October, 14:00

Beerschot VA vs Francs Borains

  1. Beerschot VA65%
  2. Draw21%
  3. Francs Borains14%

2.29 expected goals for Beerschot VA

0.91 expected goals for Francs Borains

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Beerschot VA the clear favourite: 65% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Francs Borains attack, which scores 27% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Beerschot VA attack, which scores 26% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 10.1 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Beerschot VA

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Beerschot VA attack+26%
  3. Francs Borains defence+20%

Expected goals2.28

Francs Borains

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Francs Borains attack−27%
  2. Beerschot VA defence−8%

Expected goals0.91

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals83%
  3. Over 2.5 goals56%
  4. Over 3.5 goals40%
  5. Over 4.5 goals22%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.6 for Beerschot VA and 4.5 for Francs Borains

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

4.5 expected

2.0 for Beerschot VA and 2.5 for Francs Borains

  1. Over 3.5 cards65%
  2. Over 4.5 cards46%
  3. Over 5.5 cards29%

Shots

27.5 expected

17.1 for Beerschot VA and 10.4 for Francs Borains

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots74%
  3. Over 24.5 shots63%

Fouls

28.5 expected

13.2 for Beerschot VA and 15.3 for Francs Borains

  1. Over 20.5 fouls92%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls85%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls74%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 02:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.