Probably Football

Matches

Jupiler Pro League (Belgium)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

Zulte Waregem vs Club Brugge KV

  1. Zulte Waregem10%
  2. Draw17%
  3. Club Brugge KV73%

1.01 expected goals for Zulte Waregem

3.02 expected goals for Club Brugge KV

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Club Brugge KV the clear favourite: 73% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Club Brugge KV attack, which scores 166% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Club Brugge KV defence, which lets in 44% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 4.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 63% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 9.7 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Zulte Waregem

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Zulte Waregem attack+18%
  3. Club Brugge KV defence−44%

Expected goals1.01

Club Brugge KV

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Club Brugge KV attack+166%
  2. Zulte Waregem defence−16%

Expected goals3.03

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals98%
  2. Over 1.5 goals91%
  3. Over 2.5 goals63%
  4. Over 3.5 goals57%
  5. Over 4.5 goals38%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.7 expected

5.3 for Zulte Waregem and 4.4 for Club Brugge KV

  1. Over 8.5 corners59%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.7 for Zulte Waregem and 2.4 for Club Brugge KV

  1. Over 3.5 cards58%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

31.2 expected

16.0 for Zulte Waregem and 15.2 for Club Brugge KV

  1. Over 20.5 shots92%
  2. Over 22.5 shots87%
  3. Over 24.5 shots79%

Fouls

22.1 expected

11.6 for Zulte Waregem and 10.5 for Club Brugge KV

  1. Over 20.5 fouls61%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls45%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls30%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.