Probably Football

Matches

Jupiler Pro League (Belgium)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

St. Truiden vs OH Leuven

  1. St. Truiden57%
  2. Draw23%
  3. OH Leuven20%

1.91 expected goals for St. Truiden

0.93 expected goals for OH Leuven

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes St. Truiden the clear favourite: 57% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the St. Truiden attack, which scores 49% more goals than an average team. Next comes the St. Truiden defence, which lets in 25% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

St. Truiden

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. St. Truiden attack+49%
  3. OH Leuven defence−15%

Expected goals1.91

OH Leuven

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. OH Leuven attack−8%
  2. St. Truiden defence−25%

Expected goals0.93

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals78%
  3. Over 2.5 goals56%
  4. Over 3.5 goals32%
  5. Over 4.5 goals16%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

6.1 for St. Truiden and 3.7 for OH Leuven

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.6 for St. Truiden and 2.4 for OH Leuven

  1. Over 3.5 cards56%
  2. Over 4.5 cards37%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

26.5 expected

15.6 for St. Truiden and 10.9 for OH Leuven

  1. Over 20.5 shots80%
  2. Over 22.5 shots70%
  3. Over 24.5 shots59%

Fouls

24.4 expected

12.9 for St. Truiden and 11.5 for OH Leuven

  1. Over 20.5 fouls76%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls62%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls48%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.