Saturday 31 October, 11:00
KV Mechelen vs Genk
- KV Mechelen20%
- Draw22%
- Genk58%
1.12 expected goals for KV Mechelen
2.16 expected goals for Genk
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
The model makes Genk the clear favourite: 58% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Genk attack, which scores 51% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Genk defence, which lets in 31% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 60% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 9.9 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
KV Mechelen
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- KV Mechelen attack+8%
- Genk defence−31%
Expected goals1.12
Genk
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Genk attack+51%
- KV Mechelen defence+5%
Expected goals2.16
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals96%
- Over 1.5 goals84%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Over 3.5 goals42%
- Over 4.5 goals23%
- Both teams score57%
- KV Mechelen or draw42%
- Draw or Genk80%
- No draw78%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.9 expected
6.0 for KV Mechelen and 3.9 for Genk
- Over 8.5 corners61%
- Over 9.5 corners51%
- Over 10.5 corners41%
Cards
4.3 expected
2.1 for KV Mechelen and 2.2 for Genk
- Over 3.5 cards62%
- Over 4.5 cards42%
- Over 5.5 cards26%
Shots
26.1 expected
13.3 for KV Mechelen and 12.8 for Genk
- Over 20.5 shots78%
- Over 22.5 shots68%
- Over 24.5 shots57%
Fouls
23.0 expected
11.4 for KV Mechelen and 11.6 for Genk
- Over 20.5 fouls67%
- Over 22.5 fouls52%
- Over 24.5 fouls37%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.