Probably Football

Matches

Jupiler Pro League (Belgium)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

Charleroi vs RAAL La Louvière

  1. Charleroi57%
  2. Draw23%
  3. RAAL La Louvière20%

1.84 expected goals for Charleroi

0.91 expected goals for RAAL La Louvière

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Charleroi the clear favourite: 57% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Charleroi defence, which lets in 32% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Charleroi attack, which scores 24% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Charleroi

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Charleroi attack+24%
  3. RAAL La Louvière defence−2%

Expected goals1.84

RAAL La Louvière

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. RAAL La Louvière attack−1%
  2. Charleroi defence−32%

Expected goals0.91

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals77%
  3. Over 2.5 goals55%
  4. Over 3.5 goals30%
  5. Over 4.5 goals15%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.5 for Charleroi and 4.4 for RAAL La Louvière

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.6 for Charleroi and 2.3 for RAAL La Louvière

  1. Over 3.5 cards55%
  2. Over 4.5 cards36%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

28.8 expected

18.5 for Charleroi and 10.3 for RAAL La Louvière

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots79%
  3. Over 24.5 shots69%

Fouls

23.6 expected

10.5 for Charleroi and 13.1 for RAAL La Louvière

  1. Over 20.5 fouls71%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls57%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls42%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.