Probably Football

Matches

Jupiler Pro League (Belgium)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise

  1. SK Beveren12%
  2. Draw18%
  3. Union St. Gilloise70%

0.87 expected goals for SK Beveren

2.63 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Union St. Gilloise the clear favourite: 70% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Union St. Gilloise defence, which lets in 58% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Union St. Gilloise attack, which scores 122% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 61% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 9.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

SK Beveren

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. SK Beveren attack+36%
  3. Union St. Gilloise defence−58%

Expected goals0.87

Union St. Gilloise

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Union St. Gilloise attack+122%
  2. SK Beveren defence−13%

Expected goals2.63

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals87%
  3. Over 2.5 goals61%
  4. Over 3.5 goals46%
  5. Over 4.5 goals27%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

5.2 for SK Beveren and 4.2 for Union St. Gilloise

  1. Over 8.5 corners56%
  2. Over 9.5 corners45%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.8 for SK Beveren and 2.2 for Union St. Gilloise

  1. Over 3.5 cards55%
  2. Over 4.5 cards36%
  3. Over 5.5 cards20%

Shots

27.5 expected

10.9 for SK Beveren and 16.6 for Union St. Gilloise

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots73%
  3. Over 24.5 shots63%

Fouls

22.1 expected

11.1 for SK Beveren and 11.0 for Union St. Gilloise

  1. Over 20.5 fouls61%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls45%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls31%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.