Probably Football

Matches

Jupiler Pro League (Belgium)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

Anderlecht vs KVC Westerlo

  1. Anderlecht50%
  2. Draw22%
  3. KVC Westerlo28%

2.19 expected goals for Anderlecht

1.52 expected goals for KVC Westerlo

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Anderlecht has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 22% and a KVC Westerlo win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the KVC Westerlo attack, which scores 71% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Anderlecht defence, which lets in 35% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 62% chance, and both teams scoring, 62%. And about 9.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Anderlecht

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Anderlecht attack+41%
  3. KVC Westerlo defence+2%

Expected goals2.19

KVC Westerlo

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. KVC Westerlo attack+71%
  2. Anderlecht defence−35%

Expected goals1.52

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals89%
  3. Over 2.5 goals62%
  4. Over 3.5 goals51%
  5. Over 4.5 goals31%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

5.6 for Anderlecht and 3.9 for KVC Westerlo

  1. Over 8.5 corners56%
  2. Over 9.5 corners46%
  3. Over 10.5 corners36%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.6 for Anderlecht and 2.1 for KVC Westerlo

  1. Over 3.5 cards51%
  2. Over 4.5 cards31%
  3. Over 5.5 cards17%

Shots

25.7 expected

14.4 for Anderlecht and 11.3 for KVC Westerlo

  1. Over 20.5 shots77%
  2. Over 22.5 shots66%
  3. Over 24.5 shots54%

Fouls

25.2 expected

12.0 for Anderlecht and 13.2 for KVC Westerlo

  1. Over 20.5 fouls80%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls68%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls54%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.