Probably Football

Matches

Jupiler Pro League (Belgium)

Kortrijk vs KV Mechelen

  1. Kortrijk33%
  2. Draw27%
  3. KV Mechelen40%

1.26 expected goals for Kortrijk

1.41 expected goals for KV Mechelen

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 40%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Kortrijk attack, which scores 14% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 55%. And about 9.7 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Kortrijk

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Kortrijk attack−14%
  3. KV Mechelen defence−2%

Expected goals1.26

KV Mechelen

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. KV Mechelen attack+7%
  2. Kortrijk defence−4%

Expected goals1.41

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%
  3. Over 2.5 goals54%
  4. Over 3.5 goals28%
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.7 expected

5.2 for Kortrijk and 4.4 for KV Mechelen

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

4.6 expected

2.1 for Kortrijk and 2.4 for KV Mechelen

  1. Over 3.5 cards67%
  2. Over 4.5 cards48%
  3. Over 5.5 cards31%

Shots

25.7 expected

13.8 for Kortrijk and 11.9 for KV Mechelen

  1. Over 20.5 shots77%
  2. Over 22.5 shots66%
  3. Over 24.5 shots54%

Fouls

25.5 expected

13.7 for Kortrijk and 11.9 for KV Mechelen

  1. Over 20.5 fouls82%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls70%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls56%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.