Everton vs Coventry
- Everton51%
- Draw25%
- Coventry24%
1.65 expected goals for Everton
0.98 expected goals for Coventry
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Everton has the edge (51%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Coventry win at 24%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Everton defence, which lets in 58% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Coventry attack, which scores 71% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 10.2 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Everton
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Everton attack+65%
- Coventry defence−34%
Expected goals1.65
Coventry
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Coventry attack+71%
- Everton defence−58%
Expected goals0.98
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals92%
- Over 1.5 goals74%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Over 3.5 goals27%
- Over 4.5 goals13%
- Both teams score53%
- Everton or draw76%
- Draw or Coventry49%
- No draw75%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.2 expected
5.5 for Everton and 4.7 for Coventry
- Over 8.5 corners64%
- Over 9.5 corners53%
- Over 10.5 corners43%
Cards
4.1 expected
1.9 for Everton and 2.2 for Coventry
- Over 3.5 cards58%
- Over 4.5 cards39%
- Over 5.5 cards23%
Shots
28.7 expected
16.7 for Everton and 12.1 for Coventry
- Over 20.5 shots87%
- Over 22.5 shots79%
- Over 24.5 shots69%
Fouls
23.0 expected
10.9 for Everton and 12.2 for Coventry
- Over 20.5 fouls67%
- Over 22.5 fouls52%
- Over 24.5 fouls37%
Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.