Probably Football

Matches

Premier League (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Tottenham vs Crystal Palace

  1. Tottenham45%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Crystal Palace30%

1.63 expected goals for Tottenham

1.26 expected goals for Crystal Palace

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Tottenham has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Crystal Palace win at 30%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Tottenham defence, which lets in 49% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Tottenham attack, which scores 84% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 56% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 10.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Tottenham

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Tottenham attack+84%
  3. Crystal Palace defence−41%

Expected goals1.63

Crystal Palace

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Crystal Palace attack+83%
  2. Tottenham defence−49%

Expected goals1.26

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals79%
  3. Over 2.5 goals56%
  4. Over 3.5 goals33%
  5. Over 4.5 goals17%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

5.8 for Tottenham and 4.1 for Crystal Palace

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.6 for Tottenham and 2.4 for Crystal Palace

  1. Over 3.5 cards56%
  2. Over 4.5 cards37%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

26.1 expected

15.3 for Tottenham and 10.8 for Crystal Palace

  1. Over 20.5 shots78%
  2. Over 22.5 shots68%
  3. Over 24.5 shots56%

Fouls

23.6 expected

11.4 for Tottenham and 12.1 for Crystal Palace

  1. Over 20.5 fouls71%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls56%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls41%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.