Saturday 31 October, 10:00
Hull City vs Ipswich
- Hull City34%
- Draw26%
- Ipswich40%
1.23 expected goals for Hull City
1.39 expected goals for Ipswich
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
A very open match: no result goes above 40%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Ipswich attack, which scores 77% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Hull City defence, which lets in 42% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 10.1 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Hull City
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Hull City attack+17%
- Ipswich defence−30%
Expected goals1.23
Ipswich
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Ipswich attack+77%
- Hull City defence−42%
Expected goals1.39
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals92%
- Over 1.5 goals74%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Over 3.5 goals27%
- Over 4.5 goals13%
- Both teams score54%
- Hull City or draw60%
- Draw or Ipswich66%
- No draw74%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
10.1 expected
5.5 for Hull City and 4.6 for Ipswich
- Over 8.5 corners63%
- Over 9.5 corners52%
- Over 10.5 corners42%
Cards
4.4 expected
2.2 for Hull City and 2.2 for Ipswich
- Over 3.5 cards64%
- Over 4.5 cards45%
- Over 5.5 cards28%
Shots
25.3 expected
14.1 for Hull City and 11.2 for Ipswich
- Over 20.5 shots75%
- Over 22.5 shots64%
- Over 24.5 shots52%
Fouls
21.7 expected
11.1 for Hull City and 10.6 for Ipswich
- Over 20.5 fouls58%
- Over 22.5 fouls42%
- Over 24.5 fouls28%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.