Probably Football

Matches

Premier League (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Coventry vs Sunderland

  1. Coventry36%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Sunderland38%

1.20 expected goals for Coventry

1.25 expected goals for Sunderland

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 38%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Sunderland defence, which lets in 51% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Coventry attack, which scores 60% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 9.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Coventry

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Coventry attack+60%
  3. Sunderland defence−51%

Expected goals1.20

Sunderland

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Sunderland attack+38%
  2. Coventry defence−33%

Expected goals1.25

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%
  2. Over 1.5 goals71%
  3. Over 2.5 goals50%
  4. Over 3.5 goals23%
  5. Over 4.5 goals10%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

4.7 for Coventry and 4.8 for Sunderland

  1. Over 8.5 corners56%
  2. Over 9.5 corners46%
  3. Over 10.5 corners36%

Cards

3.6 expected

1.4 for Coventry and 2.1 for Sunderland

  1. Over 3.5 cards48%
  2. Over 4.5 cards29%
  3. Over 5.5 cards15%

Shots

29.4 expected

13.7 for Coventry and 15.7 for Sunderland

  1. Over 20.5 shots88%
  2. Over 22.5 shots81%
  3. Over 24.5 shots72%

Fouls

23.9 expected

11.7 for Coventry and 12.2 for Sunderland

  1. Over 20.5 fouls73%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls58%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls43%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.