Probably Football

Matches

Premier League (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Chelsea vs Manchester United

  1. Chelsea48%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Manchester United29%

2.19 expected goals for Chelsea

1.63 expected goals for Manchester United

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Chelsea has the edge (48%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a Manchester United win at 29%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Chelsea attack, which scores 164% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Manchester United attack, which scores 112% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 64% chance, and both teams scoring, 59%. And about 9.9 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Chelsea

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Chelsea attack+164%
  3. Manchester United defence−45%

Expected goals2.19

Manchester United

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Manchester United attack+112%
  2. Chelsea defence−43%

Expected goals1.63

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals90%
  3. Over 2.5 goals64%
  4. Over 3.5 goals53%
  5. Over 4.5 goals34%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.9 expected

5.3 for Chelsea and 4.7 for Manchester United

  1. Over 8.5 corners61%
  2. Over 9.5 corners51%
  3. Over 10.5 corners41%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.6 for Chelsea and 2.5 for Manchester United

  1. Over 3.5 cards58%
  2. Over 4.5 cards38%
  3. Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

24.6 expected

13.9 for Chelsea and 10.7 for Manchester United

  1. Over 20.5 shots72%
  2. Over 22.5 shots60%
  3. Over 24.5 shots48%

Fouls

22.2 expected

11.1 for Chelsea and 11.2 for Manchester United

  1. Over 20.5 fouls62%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls46%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls31%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.