Probably Football

Matches

Premier League (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Brentford vs Nottingham Forest

  1. Brentford46%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Nottingham Forest28%

1.50 expected goals for Brentford

1.09 expected goals for Nottingham Forest

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Brentford has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Nottingham Forest win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Nottingham Forest defence, which lets in 56% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Brentford attack, which scores 126% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 10.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Brentford

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Brentford attack+126%
  3. Nottingham Forest defence−56%

Expected goals1.50

Nottingham Forest

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Nottingham Forest attack+65%
  2. Brentford defence−51%

Expected goals1.09

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%
  3. Over 2.5 goals52%
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

5.4 for Brentford and 4.8 for Nottingham Forest

  1. Over 8.5 corners64%
  2. Over 9.5 corners54%
  3. Over 10.5 corners44%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.8 for Brentford and 2.3 for Nottingham Forest

  1. Over 3.5 cards58%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

28.6 expected

14.5 for Brentford and 14.2 for Nottingham Forest

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots79%
  3. Over 24.5 shots69%

Fouls

23.4 expected

11.3 for Brentford and 12.1 for Nottingham Forest

  1. Over 20.5 fouls70%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls55%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls40%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.