Probably Football

Matches

Premier League (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Bournemouth vs Leeds

  1. Bournemouth51%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Leeds24%

1.71 expected goals for Bournemouth

1.01 expected goals for Leeds

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Bournemouth has the edge (51%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Leeds win at 24%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Bournemouth attack, which scores 157% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Bournemouth defence, which lets in 60% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 9.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Bournemouth

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Bournemouth attack+157%
  3. Leeds defence−56%

Expected goals1.70

Leeds

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Leeds attack+87%
  2. Bournemouth defence−60%

Expected goals1.01

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals76%
  3. Over 2.5 goals54%
  4. Over 3.5 goals29%
  5. Over 4.5 goals14%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.0 expected

5.2 for Bournemouth and 3.8 for Leeds

  1. Over 8.5 corners52%
  2. Over 9.5 corners41%
  3. Over 10.5 corners32%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.9 for Bournemouth and 2.3 for Leeds

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards42%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

26.1 expected

16.6 for Bournemouth and 9.6 for Leeds

  1. Over 20.5 shots78%
  2. Over 22.5 shots68%
  3. Over 24.5 shots56%

Fouls

24.4 expected

12.1 for Bournemouth and 12.3 for Leeds

  1. Over 20.5 fouls76%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls62%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls47%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.