Probably Football

Matches

Premier League (England)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Aston Villa vs Fulham

  1. Aston Villa56%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Fulham20%

1.84 expected goals for Aston Villa

0.90 expected goals for Fulham

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Aston Villa the clear favourite: 56% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Aston Villa attack, which scores 167% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Aston Villa defence, which lets in 55% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 10.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Aston Villa

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Aston Villa attack+167%
  3. Fulham defence−54%

Expected goals1.84

Fulham

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Fulham attack+46%
  2. Aston Villa defence−55%

Expected goals0.90

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals76%
  3. Over 2.5 goals54%
  4. Over 3.5 goals30%
  5. Over 4.5 goals14%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

5.6 for Aston Villa and 4.6 for Fulham

  1. Over 8.5 corners64%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.4 for Aston Villa and 2.6 for Fulham

  1. Over 3.5 cards55%
  2. Over 4.5 cards36%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

28.1 expected

16.6 for Aston Villa and 11.6 for Fulham

  1. Over 20.5 shots85%
  2. Over 22.5 shots77%
  3. Over 24.5 shots67%

Fouls

22.7 expected

10.2 for Aston Villa and 12.4 for Fulham

  1. Over 20.5 fouls65%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls50%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls35%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.