Probably Football

Matches

Premier League (England)

Saturday 24 October, 09:00

Final score

Sunderland0-0Leeds

The model gave this result 26%. Its most likely result was a Leeds win (48%).

Sunderland vs Leeds

  1. Sunderland26%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Leeds48%

0.91 expected goals for Sunderland

1.36 expected goals for Leeds

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Leeds has the edge (48%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Sunderland win at 26%. It expects 2.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 10.0 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals89%It did not happen
  2. Over 1.5 goals67%It did not happen
  3. Over 2.5 goals48%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals19%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals8%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.0 expected

5.7 for Sunderland and 4.3 for Leeds

  1. Over 8.5 corners62%
  2. Over 9.5 corners52%
  3. Over 10.5 corners42%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.9 for Sunderland and 2.1 for Leeds

  1. Over 3.5 cards57%
  2. Over 4.5 cards37%
  3. Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

27.1 expected

14.9 for Sunderland and 12.2 for Leeds

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots73%
  3. Over 24.5 shots62%

Fouls

24.7 expected

11.8 for Sunderland and 12.9 for Leeds

  1. Over 20.5 fouls78%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls65%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls50%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.