Probably Football

Matches

Premier League (England)

Saturday 24 October, 09:00

Final score

Ipswich1-1Nottingham Forest

The model gave this result 26%. Its most likely result was a Nottingham Forest win (46%).

Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest

  1. Ipswich28%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Nottingham Forest46%

1.19 expected goals for Ipswich

1.64 expected goals for Nottingham Forest

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Nottingham Forest has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Ipswich win at 28%. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 9.1 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals78%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals55%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals31%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals16%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.1 expected

5.0 for Ipswich and 4.1 for Nottingham Forest

  1. Over 8.5 corners53%
  2. Over 9.5 corners42%
  3. Over 10.5 corners32%

Cards

4.2 expected

1.9 for Ipswich and 2.2 for Nottingham Forest

  1. Over 3.5 cards60%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

26.1 expected

13.2 for Ipswich and 12.9 for Nottingham Forest

  1. Over 20.5 shots78%
  2. Over 22.5 shots68%
  3. Over 24.5 shots57%

Fouls

23.2 expected

11.2 for Ipswich and 12.0 for Nottingham Forest

  1. Over 20.5 fouls69%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls54%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls39%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.