Probably Football

Matches

Premiership (Scotland)

Saturday 31 October, 10:00

Dundee Utd vs Heart Of Midlothian

  1. Dundee Utd31%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Heart Of Midlothian45%

1.43 expected goals for Dundee Utd

1.75 expected goals for Heart Of Midlothian

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Heart Of Midlothian has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a Dundee Utd win at 31%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Heart Of Midlothian attack, which scores 87% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Heart Of Midlothian defence, which lets in 32% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 57% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 10.5 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Dundee Utd

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Dundee Utd attack+40%
  3. Heart Of Midlothian defence−32%

Expected goals1.43

Heart Of Midlothian

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Heart Of Midlothian attack+87%
  2. Dundee Utd defence−31%

Expected goals1.75

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%
  2. Over 1.5 goals83%
  3. Over 2.5 goals57%
  4. Over 3.5 goals39%
  5. Over 4.5 goals22%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.5 expected

6.2 for Dundee Utd and 4.2 for Heart Of Midlothian

  1. Over 8.5 corners66%
  2. Over 9.5 corners56%
  3. Over 10.5 corners46%

Cards

4.8 expected

2.3 for Dundee Utd and 2.5 for Heart Of Midlothian

  1. Over 3.5 cards70%
  2. Over 4.5 cards52%
  3. Over 5.5 cards35%

Shots

28.6 expected

16.1 for Dundee Utd and 12.5 for Heart Of Midlothian

  1. Over 20.5 shots87%
  2. Over 22.5 shots79%
  3. Over 24.5 shots69%

Fouls

25.4 expected

13.3 for Dundee Utd and 12.2 for Heart Of Midlothian

  1. Over 20.5 fouls81%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls69%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls55%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 22:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.