Probably Football

Matches

Premiership (Scotland)

Wednesday 28 October, 14:45

Final score

ST Mirren1-1Hibernian

The model gave this result 27%. Its most likely result was a Hibernian win (46%).

ST Mirren vs Hibernian

  1. ST Mirren27%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Hibernian46%

1.11 expected goals for ST Mirren

1.48 expected goals for Hibernian

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Hibernian has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a ST Mirren win at 27%. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 50%. And about 10.1 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals50%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.1 expected

5.3 for ST Mirren and 4.9 for Hibernian

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

4.3 expected

2.1 for ST Mirren and 2.2 for Hibernian

  1. Over 3.5 cards62%
  2. Over 4.5 cards43%
  3. Over 5.5 cards26%

Shots

25.9 expected

13.3 for ST Mirren and 12.6 for Hibernian

  1. Over 20.5 shots78%
  2. Over 22.5 shots67%
  3. Over 24.5 shots55%

Fouls

25.6 expected

12.8 for ST Mirren and 12.8 for Hibernian

  1. Over 20.5 fouls82%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls70%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls56%

Saved before kickoff, on 27 October at 06:57 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.