Probably Football

Matches

Premiership (Scotland)

Saturday 24 October, 09:00

Final score

ST Mirren2-1Dundee

The model gave this result 26%. Its most likely result was a Dundee win (50%).

ST Mirren vs Dundee

  1. ST Mirren26%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Dundee50%

1.25 expected goals for ST Mirren

1.78 expected goals for Dundee

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Dundee has the edge (50%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a ST Mirren win at 26%. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 55% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 10.8 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals95%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals81%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals55%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals36%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals19%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.8 expected

5.8 for ST Mirren and 5.1 for Dundee

  1. Over 8.5 corners69%
  2. Over 9.5 corners59%
  3. Over 10.5 corners50%

Cards

4.2 expected

2.1 for ST Mirren and 2.1 for Dundee

  1. Over 3.5 cards60%
  2. Over 4.5 cards41%
  3. Over 5.5 cards24%

Shots

30.1 expected

17.4 for ST Mirren and 12.7 for Dundee

  1. Over 20.5 shots90%
  2. Over 22.5 shots83%
  3. Over 24.5 shots75%

Fouls

24.9 expected

12.2 for ST Mirren and 12.7 for Dundee

  1. Over 20.5 fouls79%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls66%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls51%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.