Probably Football

Matches

Premiership (Scotland)

Saturday 24 October, 09:00

Final score

Dundee Utd3-2Aberdeen

The model's most likely result happened: a Dundee Utd win (37%).

Dundee Utd vs Aberdeen

  1. Dundee Utd37%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Aberdeen34%

1.22 expected goals for Dundee Utd

1.14 expected goals for Aberdeen

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

A very open match: no result goes above 37%. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 47% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 11.8 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals69%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals47%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals21%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%It happened

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

11.8 expected

6.7 for Dundee Utd and 5.1 for Aberdeen

  1. Over 8.5 corners76%
  2. Over 9.5 corners67%
  3. Over 10.5 corners58%

Cards

4.2 expected

2.0 for Dundee Utd and 2.2 for Aberdeen

  1. Over 3.5 cards61%
  2. Over 4.5 cards42%
  3. Over 5.5 cards25%

Shots

28.3 expected

16.1 for Dundee Utd and 12.2 for Aberdeen

  1. Over 20.5 shots86%
  2. Over 22.5 shots77%
  3. Over 24.5 shots67%

Fouls

23.3 expected

11.8 for Dundee Utd and 11.5 for Aberdeen

  1. Over 20.5 fouls69%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls55%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls40%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.