Probably Football

Matches

J1 League (Japan)

V-varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy

  1. V-varen Nagasaki48%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Tokyo Verdy25%

1.50 expected goals for V-varen Nagasaki

0.88 expected goals for Tokyo Verdy

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

V-varen Nagasaki has the edge (48%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Tokyo Verdy win at 25%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Tokyo Verdy attack, which scores 24% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the V-varen Nagasaki defence, which lets in 15% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 46% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 9.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

V-varen Nagasaki

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. V-varen Nagasaki attack−3%
  3. Tokyo Verdy defence+2%

Expected goals1.50

Tokyo Verdy

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Tokyo Verdy attack−24%
  2. V-varen Nagasaki defence−15%

Expected goals0.88

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals90%
  2. Over 1.5 goals69%
  3. Over 2.5 goals46%
  4. Over 3.5 goals22%
  5. Over 4.5 goals9%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

5.3 for V-varen Nagasaki and 4.3 for Tokyo Verdy

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners47%
  3. Over 10.5 corners37%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.5 for V-varen Nagasaki and 2.3 for Tokyo Verdy

  1. Over 3.5 cards52%
  2. Over 4.5 cards33%
  3. Over 5.5 cards18%

Shots

24.8 expected

14.8 for V-varen Nagasaki and 10.0 for Tokyo Verdy

  1. Over 20.5 shots72%
  2. Over 22.5 shots61%
  3. Over 24.5 shots49%

Fouls

25.6 expected

12.2 for V-varen Nagasaki and 13.3 for Tokyo Verdy

  1. Over 20.5 fouls82%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls70%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls56%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.