Probably Football

Matches

J1 League (Japan)

JEF United Chiba vs Avispa Fukuoka

  1. JEF United Chiba37%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Avispa Fukuoka37%

1.38 expected goals for JEF United Chiba

1.31 expected goals for Avispa Fukuoka

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 37%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Avispa Fukuoka attack, which scores 17% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the JEF United Chiba defence, which lets in 16% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 49% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 9.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

JEF United Chiba

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. JEF United Chiba attack−5%
  3. Avispa Fukuoka defence−4%

Expected goals1.38

Avispa Fukuoka

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Avispa Fukuoka attack−17%
  2. JEF United Chiba defence+16%

Expected goals1.32

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals76%
  3. Over 2.5 goals49%
  4. Over 3.5 goals28%
  5. Over 4.5 goals14%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

5.4 for JEF United Chiba and 4.2 for Avispa Fukuoka

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.7 for JEF United Chiba and 2.3 for Avispa Fukuoka

  1. Over 3.5 cards56%
  2. Over 4.5 cards37%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

23.3 expected

13.6 for JEF United Chiba and 9.7 for Avispa Fukuoka

  1. Over 20.5 shots65%
  2. Over 22.5 shots52%
  3. Over 24.5 shots40%

Fouls

23.6 expected

12.0 for JEF United Chiba and 11.5 for Avispa Fukuoka

  1. Over 20.5 fouls71%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls56%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls41%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.