Urawa vs V-varen Nagasaki

Urawa43%
Draw25%
V-varen Nagasaki32%

1.61 expected goals for Urawa

1.23 expected goals for V-varen Nagasaki

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Urawa has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a V-varen Nagasaki win at 32%. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 9.7 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
Over 1.5 goals78%It did not happen
Over 2.5 goals51%It did not happen
Over 3.5 goals32%It did not happen
Over 4.5 goals16%It did not happen

Both teams score54%
Urawa or draw68%
Draw or V-varen Nagasaki57%
No draw74%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.7 expected

5.8 for Urawa and 4.0 for V-varen Nagasaki

Over 8.5 corners59%
Over 9.5 corners49%
Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.7 for Urawa and 2.0 for V-varen Nagasaki

Over 3.5 cards51%
Over 4.5 cards31%
Over 5.5 cards17%

Shots

27.3 expected

16.3 for Urawa and 11.0 for V-varen Nagasaki

Over 20.5 shots83%
Over 22.5 shots73%
Over 24.5 shots63%

Fouls

23.4 expected

10.8 for Urawa and 12.6 for V-varen Nagasaki

Over 20.5 fouls69%
Over 22.5 fouls55%
Over 24.5 fouls40%

Saved before kickoff, on 23 October at 07:08 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.