Probably Football

Matches

J1 League (Japan)

Saturday 24 October, 05:00

Final score

Urawa1-0V-varen Nagasaki

The model's most likely result happened: a Urawa win (43%).

Urawa vs V-varen Nagasaki

  1. Urawa43%
  2. Draw25%
  3. V-varen Nagasaki32%

1.61 expected goals for Urawa

1.23 expected goals for V-varen Nagasaki

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Urawa has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a V-varen Nagasaki win at 32%. It expects 2.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 9.7 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals78%It did not happen
  3. Over 2.5 goals51%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals32%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals16%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.7 expected

5.8 for Urawa and 4.0 for V-varen Nagasaki

  1. Over 8.5 corners59%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.7 for Urawa and 2.0 for V-varen Nagasaki

  1. Over 3.5 cards51%
  2. Over 4.5 cards31%
  3. Over 5.5 cards17%

Shots

27.3 expected

16.3 for Urawa and 11.0 for V-varen Nagasaki

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots73%
  3. Over 24.5 shots63%

Fouls

23.4 expected

10.8 for Urawa and 12.6 for V-varen Nagasaki

  1. Over 20.5 fouls69%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls55%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls40%

Saved before kickoff, on 23 October at 07:08 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.