Kashima vs Kashiwa Reysol

Kashima46%
Draw24%
Kashiwa Reysol30%

1.94 expected goals for Kashima

1.40 expected goals for Kashiwa Reysol

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Kashima has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a Kashiwa Reysol win at 30%. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 8.4 corners.

Goals

Over 0.5 goals96%It happened
Over 1.5 goals85%It happened
Over 2.5 goals54%It happened
Over 3.5 goals43%It happened
Over 4.5 goals25%It happened

Both teams score56%
Kashima or draw70%
Draw or Kashiwa Reysol54%
No draw77%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.4 expected

4.0 for Kashima and 4.4 for Kashiwa Reysol

Over 8.5 corners45%
Over 9.5 corners34%
Over 10.5 corners25%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.6 for Kashima and 2.1 for Kashiwa Reysol

Over 3.5 cards52%
Over 4.5 cards33%
Over 5.5 cards18%

Shots

25.6 expected

12.2 for Kashima and 13.4 for Kashiwa Reysol

Over 20.5 shots76%
Over 22.5 shots65%
Over 24.5 shots54%

Fouls

23.1 expected

10.8 for Kashima and 12.3 for Kashiwa Reysol

Over 20.5 fouls68%
Over 22.5 fouls53%
Over 24.5 fouls38%

Saved before kickoff, on 23 October at 07:08 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.