Probably Football

Matches

J1 League (Japan)

Saturday 24 October, 05:00

Final score

Gamba Osaka2-2Kyoto Sanga

The model gave this result 25%. Its most likely result was a Gamba Osaka win (48%).

Gamba Osaka vs Kyoto Sanga

  1. Gamba Osaka48%
  2. Draw25%
  3. Kyoto Sanga27%

1.80 expected goals for Gamba Osaka

1.15 expected goals for Kyoto Sanga

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Gamba Osaka has the edge (48%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a Kyoto Sanga win at 27%. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 54%. And about 9.7 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals80%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals52%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals34%It happened
  5. Over 4.5 goals18%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.7 expected

5.5 for Gamba Osaka and 4.2 for Kyoto Sanga

  1. Over 8.5 corners59%
  2. Over 9.5 corners48%
  3. Over 10.5 corners38%

Cards

3.6 expected

1.8 for Gamba Osaka and 1.8 for Kyoto Sanga

  1. Over 3.5 cards48%
  2. Over 4.5 cards29%
  3. Over 5.5 cards15%

Shots

26.0 expected

15.5 for Gamba Osaka and 10.4 for Kyoto Sanga

  1. Over 20.5 shots78%
  2. Over 22.5 shots67%
  3. Over 24.5 shots56%

Fouls

22.8 expected

11.0 for Gamba Osaka and 11.8 for Kyoto Sanga

  1. Over 20.5 fouls66%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls51%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls36%

Saved before kickoff, on 23 October at 07:08 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.