Wednesday 21 October, 05:00
Final score
Kyoto Sanga2-2Kashima
The model gave this result 24%. Its most likely result was a Kashima win (56%).
Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima
- Kyoto Sanga20%
- Draw24%
- Kashima56%
0.92 expected goals for Kyoto Sanga
2.02 expected goals for Kashima
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
What the model said before kickoff
The model makes Kashima the clear favourite: 56% to win. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 52%. And about 9.0 corners.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals94%It happened
- Over 1.5 goals80%It happened
- Over 2.5 goals51%It happened
- Over 3.5 goals34%It happened
- Over 4.5 goals17%It did not happen
- Both teams score52%
- Kyoto Sanga or draw44%
- Draw or Kashima80%
- No draw76%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.0 expected
5.0 for Kyoto Sanga and 4.0 for Kashima
- Over 8.5 corners52%
- Over 9.5 corners41%
- Over 10.5 corners32%
Cards
3.7 expected
1.7 for Kyoto Sanga and 2.0 for Kashima
- Over 3.5 cards51%
- Over 4.5 cards31%
- Over 5.5 cards17%
Shots
25.3 expected
12.8 for Kyoto Sanga and 12.5 for Kashima
- Over 20.5 shots75%
- Over 22.5 shots64%
- Over 24.5 shots52%
Fouls
23.6 expected
12.4 for Kyoto Sanga and 11.2 for Kashima
- Over 20.5 fouls71%
- Over 22.5 fouls56%
- Over 24.5 fouls41%
Saved before kickoff, on 20 October at 20:04 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.