Wednesday 21 October, 05:00
Final score
Avispa Fukuoka1-2Gamba Osaka
The model's most likely result happened: a Gamba Osaka win (44%).
Avispa Fukuoka vs Gamba Osaka
- Avispa Fukuoka29%
- Draw27%
- Gamba Osaka44%
1.07 expected goals for Avispa Fukuoka
1.47 expected goals for Gamba Osaka
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
What the model said before kickoff
Gamba Osaka has the edge (44%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Avispa Fukuoka win at 29%. It expects 2.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 48% chance, and both teams scoring, 51%. And about 9.4 corners.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals91%It happened
- Over 1.5 goals73%It happened
- Over 2.5 goals48%It happened
- Over 3.5 goals25%It did not happen
- Over 4.5 goals11%It did not happen
- Both teams score51%
- Avispa Fukuoka or draw56%
- Draw or Gamba Osaka71%
- No draw73%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.4 expected
5.3 for Avispa Fukuoka and 4.1 for Gamba Osaka
- Over 8.5 corners56%
- Over 9.5 corners45%
- Over 10.5 corners36%
Cards
4.0 expected
2.0 for Avispa Fukuoka and 2.0 for Gamba Osaka
- Over 3.5 cards57%
- Over 4.5 cards37%
- Over 5.5 cards22%
Shots
26.9 expected
13.1 for Avispa Fukuoka and 13.8 for Gamba Osaka
- Over 20.5 shots81%
- Over 22.5 shots72%
- Over 24.5 shots61%
Fouls
24.5 expected
12.2 for Avispa Fukuoka and 12.3 for Gamba Osaka
- Over 20.5 fouls77%
- Over 22.5 fouls63%
- Over 24.5 fouls49%
Saved before kickoff, on 20 October at 20:04 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.