Probably Football

Matches

Super League (Switzerland)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

FC Luzern vs FC Sion

  1. FC Luzern33%
  2. Draw25%
  3. FC Sion42%

1.69 expected goals for FC Luzern

2.15 expected goals for FC Sion

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

FC Sion has the edge (42%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a FC Luzern win at 33%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the FC Sion attack, which scores 42% more goals than an average team. Next comes the FC Luzern attack, which scores 33% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.8 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 65% chance, and both teams scoring, 67%. And about 10.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

FC Luzern

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. FC Luzern attack+33%
  3. FC Sion defence−16%

Expected goals1.69

FC Sion

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. FC Sion attack+42%
  2. FC Luzern defence+11%

Expected goals2.15

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals90%
  3. Over 2.5 goals65%
  4. Over 3.5 goals53%
  5. Over 4.5 goals34%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.4 expected

5.4 for FC Luzern and 5.0 for FC Sion

  1. Over 8.5 corners66%
  2. Over 9.5 corners56%
  3. Over 10.5 corners46%

Cards

4.5 expected

2.2 for FC Luzern and 2.3 for FC Sion

  1. Over 3.5 cards66%
  2. Over 4.5 cards47%
  3. Over 5.5 cards30%

Shots

32.6 expected

17.6 for FC Luzern and 14.9 for FC Sion

  1. Over 20.5 shots94%
  2. Over 22.5 shots90%
  3. Over 24.5 shots83%

Fouls

23.8 expected

12.8 for FC Luzern and 10.9 for FC Sion

  1. Over 20.5 fouls72%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls58%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls43%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.