Probably Football

Matches

Ligue 1 (France)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

Estac Troyes vs Le Mans

  1. Estac Troyes38%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Le Mans36%

1.40 expected goals for Estac Troyes

1.31 expected goals for Le Mans

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 38%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Le Mans defence, which lets in 34% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Estac Troyes defence, which lets in 32% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 9.4 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Estac Troyes

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Estac Troyes attack+40%
  3. Le Mans defence−34%

Expected goals1.40

Le Mans

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Le Mans attack+43%
  2. Estac Troyes defence−32%

Expected goals1.32

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals76%
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%
  4. Over 3.5 goals29%
  5. Over 4.5 goals14%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.4 expected

6.0 for Estac Troyes and 3.4 for Le Mans

  1. Over 8.5 corners56%
  2. Over 9.5 corners45%
  3. Over 10.5 corners36%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.7 for Estac Troyes and 2.4 for Le Mans

  1. Over 3.5 cards58%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

26.2 expected

15.4 for Estac Troyes and 10.8 for Le Mans

  1. Over 20.5 shots79%
  2. Over 22.5 shots68%
  3. Over 24.5 shots57%

Fouls

25.2 expected

11.3 for Estac Troyes and 13.9 for Le Mans

  1. Over 20.5 fouls80%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls68%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls54%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.