Probably Football

Matches

Ligue 1 (France)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

Strasbourg vs Auxerre

  1. Strasbourg48%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Auxerre28%

1.95 expected goals for Strasbourg

1.38 expected goals for Auxerre

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Strasbourg has the edge (48%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a Auxerre win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Strasbourg attack, which scores 89% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Auxerre attack, which scores 48% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Strasbourg

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Strasbourg attack+89%
  3. Auxerre defence−32%

Expected goals1.95

Auxerre

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Auxerre attack+48%
  2. Strasbourg defence−32%

Expected goals1.38

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals85%
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%
  4. Over 3.5 goals42%
  5. Over 4.5 goals24%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.2 for Strasbourg and 4.6 for Auxerre

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

3.6 expected

1.5 for Strasbourg and 2.1 for Auxerre

  1. Over 3.5 cards48%
  2. Over 4.5 cards29%
  3. Over 5.5 cards15%

Shots

27.3 expected

14.7 for Strasbourg and 12.6 for Auxerre

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots74%
  3. Over 24.5 shots63%

Fouls

23.2 expected

11.8 for Strasbourg and 11.4 for Auxerre

  1. Over 20.5 fouls68%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls53%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls38%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.