Saturday 31 October, 11:00
Paris FC vs Monaco
- Paris FC37%
- Draw26%
- Monaco37%
1.44 expected goals for Paris FC
1.41 expected goals for Monaco
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
A very open match: no result goes above 37%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Monaco attack, which scores 109% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Paris FC defence, which lets in 50% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 54% chance, and both teams scoring, 57%. And about 9.6 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Paris FC
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Paris FC attack+77%
- Monaco defence−46%
Expected goals1.44
Monaco
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Monaco attack+109%
- Paris FC defence−50%
Expected goals1.41
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals94%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Over 3.5 goals32%
- Over 4.5 goals16%
- Both teams score57%
- Paris FC or draw63%
- Draw or Monaco63%
- No draw74%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.6 expected
5.9 for Paris FC and 3.7 for Monaco
- Over 8.5 corners58%
- Over 9.5 corners48%
- Over 10.5 corners38%
Cards
4.4 expected
2.1 for Paris FC and 2.3 for Monaco
- Over 3.5 cards64%
- Over 4.5 cards45%
- Over 5.5 cards28%
Shots
24.5 expected
14.4 for Paris FC and 10.1 for Monaco
- Over 20.5 shots71%
- Over 22.5 shots59%
- Over 24.5 shots47%
Fouls
25.2 expected
13.0 for Paris FC and 12.3 for Monaco
- Over 20.5 fouls80%
- Over 22.5 fouls68%
- Over 24.5 fouls54%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.