Probably Football

Matches

Ligue 1 (France)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

Marseille vs Toulouse

  1. Marseille43%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Toulouse33%

1.86 expected goals for Marseille

1.58 expected goals for Toulouse

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Marseille has the edge (43%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a Toulouse win at 33%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Marseille attack, which scores 104% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Toulouse attack, which scores 66% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 59% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 9.0 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Marseille

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Marseille attack+104%
  3. Toulouse defence−40%

Expected goals1.86

Toulouse

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Toulouse attack+66%
  2. Marseille defence−30%

Expected goals1.58

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals86%
  3. Over 2.5 goals59%
  4. Over 3.5 goals45%
  5. Over 4.5 goals26%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.0 expected

5.1 for Marseille and 4.0 for Toulouse

  1. Over 8.5 corners52%
  2. Over 9.5 corners41%
  3. Over 10.5 corners32%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.5 for Marseille and 2.2 for Toulouse

  1. Over 3.5 cards51%
  2. Over 4.5 cards32%
  3. Over 5.5 cards17%

Shots

26.8 expected

13.7 for Marseille and 13.1 for Toulouse

  1. Over 20.5 shots81%
  2. Over 22.5 shots71%
  3. Over 24.5 shots60%

Fouls

25.2 expected

11.8 for Marseille and 13.4 for Toulouse

  1. Over 20.5 fouls80%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls68%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls53%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.