Probably Football

Matches

Ligue 1 (France)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

Lyon vs Angers

  1. Lyon62%
  2. Draw23%
  3. Angers15%

1.99 expected goals for Lyon

0.73 expected goals for Angers

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Lyon the clear favourite: 62% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Lyon defence, which lets in 48% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Lyon attack, which scores 86% more goals than an average team. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 10.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Lyon

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Lyon attack+86%
  3. Angers defence−29%

Expected goals1.99

Angers

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Angers attack+3%
  2. Lyon defence−48%

Expected goals0.73

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals93%
  2. Over 1.5 goals76%
  3. Over 2.5 goals53%
  4. Over 3.5 goals29%
  5. Over 4.5 goals14%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.6 expected

5.5 for Lyon and 5.2 for Angers

  1. Over 8.5 corners68%
  2. Over 9.5 corners58%
  3. Over 10.5 corners48%

Cards

3.7 expected

1.4 for Lyon and 2.2 for Angers

  1. Over 3.5 cards50%
  2. Over 4.5 cards30%
  3. Over 5.5 cards16%

Shots

27.3 expected

16.1 for Lyon and 11.2 for Angers

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots73%
  3. Over 24.5 shots62%

Fouls

23.3 expected

10.6 for Lyon and 12.7 for Angers

  1. Over 20.5 fouls69%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls54%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls39%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.