Saturday 31 October, 11:00
Lille vs Lens
- Lille32%
- Draw27%
- Lens41%
1.22 expected goals for Lille
1.42 expected goals for Lens
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
In short
Lens has the edge (41%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Lille win at 32%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Lens attack, which scores 119% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Lille defence, which lets in 52% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 9.1 corners.
Who do you think wins?
Why?
The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.
Lille
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Playing at home+11%
- Lille attack+47%
- Lens defence−45%
Expected goals1.22
Lens
An average team scores 1.36 against an average team
- Lens attack+119%
- Lille defence−52%
Expected goals1.42
Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals92%
- Over 1.5 goals75%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Over 3.5 goals27%
- Over 4.5 goals13%
- Both teams score56%
- Lille or draw59%
- Draw or Lens68%
- No draw73%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.1 expected
4.7 for Lille and 4.4 for Lens
- Over 8.5 corners53%
- Over 9.5 corners42%
- Over 10.5 corners33%
Cards
3.7 expected
1.5 for Lille and 2.2 for Lens
- Over 3.5 cards51%
- Over 4.5 cards31%
- Over 5.5 cards17%
Shots
25.2 expected
13.1 for Lille and 12.1 for Lens
- Over 20.5 shots74%
- Over 22.5 shots63%
- Over 24.5 shots51%
Fouls
23.7 expected
11.3 for Lille and 12.4 for Lens
- Over 20.5 fouls72%
- Over 22.5 fouls57%
- Over 24.5 fouls42%
Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.