Probably Football

Matches

Ligue 1 (France)

Saturday 31 October, 11:00

Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain

  1. Le Havre6%
  2. Draw14%
  3. Paris Saint Germain80%

0.63 expected goals for Le Havre

2.89 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Paris Saint Germain the clear favourite: 80% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Paris Saint Germain attack, which scores 211% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Paris Saint Germain defence, which lets in 64% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 3.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 60% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Le Havre

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Le Havre attack+14%
  3. Paris Saint Germain defence−64%

Expected goals0.63

Paris Saint Germain

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Paris Saint Germain attack+211%
  2. Le Havre defence−32%

Expected goals2.89

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals87%
  3. Over 2.5 goals60%
  4. Over 3.5 goals47%
  5. Over 4.5 goals28%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.5 for Le Havre and 4.3 for Paris Saint Germain

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners49%
  3. Over 10.5 corners39%

Cards

3.5 expected

1.5 for Le Havre and 2.0 for Paris Saint Germain

  1. Over 3.5 cards46%
  2. Over 4.5 cards27%
  3. Over 5.5 cards14%

Shots

31.7 expected

15.2 for Le Havre and 16.5 for Paris Saint Germain

  1. Over 20.5 shots93%
  2. Over 22.5 shots88%
  3. Over 24.5 shots81%

Fouls

25.5 expected

13.4 for Le Havre and 12.0 for Paris Saint Germain

  1. Over 20.5 fouls81%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls69%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls55%

Saved before kickoff, on 29 October at 23:05 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.