Probably Football

Matches

Ligue 1 (France)

Saturday 24 October, 10:00

Final score

Monaco1-1Lille

The model gave this result 26%. Its most likely result was a Monaco win (46%).

Monaco vs Lille

  1. Monaco46%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Lille28%

1.56 expected goals for Monaco

1.09 expected goals for Lille

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Monaco has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Lille win at 28%. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 9.2 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals75%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals52%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals28%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals13%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.2 expected

4.9 for Monaco and 4.3 for Lille

  1. Over 8.5 corners54%
  2. Over 9.5 corners44%
  3. Over 10.5 corners34%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.9 for Monaco and 2.1 for Lille

  1. Over 3.5 cards57%
  2. Over 4.5 cards38%
  3. Over 5.5 cards22%

Shots

24.4 expected

14.2 for Monaco and 10.2 for Lille

  1. Over 20.5 shots71%
  2. Over 22.5 shots59%
  3. Over 24.5 shots47%

Fouls

25.1 expected

13.3 for Monaco and 11.8 for Lille

  1. Over 20.5 fouls80%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls67%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls53%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.