Saturday 24 October, 10:00
Final score
Marseille4-3Le Havre
The model's most likely result happened: a Marseille win (55%).
Marseille vs Le Havre
- Marseille55%
- Draw24%
- Le Havre21%
1.80 expected goals for Marseille
0.94 expected goals for Le Havre
Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.
What the model said before kickoff
The model makes Marseille the clear favourite: 55% to win. It expects 2.7 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 53% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 9.5 corners.
Goals
- Over 0.5 goals93%It happened
- Over 1.5 goals77%It happened
- Over 2.5 goals53%It happened
- Over 3.5 goals30%It happened
- Over 4.5 goals14%It happened
- Both teams score56%
- Marseille or draw79%
- Draw or Le Havre46%
- No draw76%
Corners, cards and more
These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.
Corners
9.5 expected
5.3 for Marseille and 4.2 for Le Havre
- Over 8.5 corners57%
- Over 9.5 corners47%
- Over 10.5 corners37%
Cards
3.9 expected
1.8 for Marseille and 2.2 for Le Havre
- Over 3.5 cards55%
- Over 4.5 cards36%
- Over 5.5 cards21%
Shots
27.6 expected
14.2 for Marseille and 13.4 for Le Havre
- Over 20.5 shots84%
- Over 22.5 shots75%
- Over 24.5 shots64%
Fouls
25.5 expected
13.1 for Marseille and 12.5 for Le Havre
- Over 20.5 fouls82%
- Over 22.5 fouls70%
- Over 24.5 fouls56%
Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.