Probably Football

Matches

Ligue 1 (France)

Saturday 24 October, 10:00

Final score

Stade Brestois 291-2Nice

The model gave this result 32%. Its most likely result was a Stade Brestois 29 win (41%).

Stade Brestois 29 vs Nice

  1. Stade Brestois 2941%
  2. Draw27%
  3. Nice32%

1.43 expected goals for Stade Brestois 29

1.17 expected goals for Nice

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Stade Brestois 29 has the edge (41%), but not by much: a draw is at 27% and a Nice win at 32%. It expects 2.6 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 52% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 9.1 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals92%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals74%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals52%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals26%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals12%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.1 expected

4.9 for Stade Brestois 29 and 4.2 for Nice

  1. Over 8.5 corners52%
  2. Over 9.5 corners42%
  3. Over 10.5 corners32%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.7 for Stade Brestois 29 and 2.1 for Nice

  1. Over 3.5 cards52%
  2. Over 4.5 cards32%
  3. Over 5.5 cards18%

Shots

26.9 expected

16.5 for Stade Brestois 29 and 10.4 for Nice

  1. Over 20.5 shots81%
  2. Over 22.5 shots71%
  3. Over 24.5 shots60%

Fouls

22.5 expected

11.3 for Stade Brestois 29 and 11.2 for Nice

  1. Over 20.5 fouls64%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls48%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls34%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.