Probably Football

Matches

Ligue 1 (France)

Saturday 24 October, 10:00

Final score

Angers0-0Lorient

The model gave this result 26%. Its most likely result was a Lorient win (56%).

Angers vs Lorient

  1. Angers18%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Lorient56%

0.79 expected goals for Angers

1.65 expected goals for Lorient

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

The model makes Lorient the clear favourite: 56% to win. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 50% chance, and both teams scoring, 53%. And about 10.2 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%It did not happen
  2. Over 1.5 goals71%It did not happen
  3. Over 2.5 goals50%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals23%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals10%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

6.0 for Angers and 4.2 for Lorient

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

4.1 expected

2.0 for Angers and 2.1 for Lorient

  1. Over 3.5 cards58%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

26.6 expected

13.7 for Angers and 12.8 for Lorient

  1. Over 20.5 shots80%
  2. Over 22.5 shots70%
  3. Over 24.5 shots59%

Fouls

24.3 expected

12.8 for Angers and 11.6 for Lorient

  1. Over 20.5 fouls76%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls62%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls47%

Saved before kickoff, on 24 October at 06:43 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.