Probably Football

Matches

Ligue 2 (France)

Boulogne vs Annecy

  1. Boulogne34%
  2. Draw29%
  3. Annecy37%

1.00 expected goals for Boulogne

1.24 expected goals for Annecy

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

A very open match: no result goes above 37%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Boulogne defence, which lets in 30% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Annecy defence, which lets in 23% fewer goals than an average team. It expects 2.2 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 43% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 10.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Boulogne

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Boulogne attack−14%
  3. Annecy defence−23%

Expected goals1.00

Annecy

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Annecy attack+29%
  2. Boulogne defence−30%

Expected goals1.24

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals89%
  2. Over 1.5 goals66%
  3. Over 2.5 goals43%
  4. Over 3.5 goals19%
  5. Over 4.5 goals8%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

5.5 for Boulogne and 4.7 for Annecy

  1. Over 8.5 corners63%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

4.1 expected

1.9 for Boulogne and 2.2 for Annecy

  1. Over 3.5 cards58%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

22.7 expected

12.7 for Boulogne and 10.0 for Annecy

  1. Over 20.5 shots61%
  2. Over 22.5 shots49%
  3. Over 24.5 shots36%

Fouls

28.0 expected

14.4 for Boulogne and 13.6 for Annecy

  1. Over 20.5 fouls91%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls83%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls72%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.