Probably Football

Matches

Ligue 2 (France)

Friday 23 October, 13:00

Final score

Dijon1-2Rodez

The model gave this result 29%. Its most likely result was a Dijon win (45%).

Dijon vs Rodez

  1. Dijon45%
  2. Draw26%
  3. Rodez29%

1.97 expected goals for Dijon

1.49 expected goals for Rodez

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Dijon has the edge (45%), but not by much: a draw is at 26% and a Rodez win at 29%. It expects 3.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 51% chance, and both teams scoring, 48%. And about 9.5 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals86%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals51%It happened
  4. Over 3.5 goals45%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals27%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.5 expected

4.6 for Dijon and 4.9 for Rodez

  1. Over 8.5 corners57%
  2. Over 9.5 corners46%
  3. Over 10.5 corners36%

Cards

3.8 expected

1.8 for Dijon and 2.1 for Rodez

  1. Over 3.5 cards54%
  2. Over 4.5 cards34%
  3. Over 5.5 cards19%

Shots

27.0 expected

14.7 for Dijon and 12.2 for Rodez

  1. Over 20.5 shots82%
  2. Over 22.5 shots72%
  3. Over 24.5 shots61%

Fouls

27.9 expected

13.4 for Dijon and 14.6 for Rodez

  1. Over 20.5 fouls90%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls82%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls71%

Saved before kickoff, on 23 October at 07:08 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.