Probably Football

Matches

Ligue 2 (France)

Friday 23 October, 13:00

Final score

Boulogne1-1Reims

The model gave this result 28%. Its most likely result was a Reims win (41%).

Boulogne vs Reims

  1. Boulogne31%
  2. Draw28%
  3. Reims41%

0.83 expected goals for Boulogne

1.61 expected goals for Reims

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

What the model said before kickoff

Reims has the edge (41%), but not by much: a draw is at 28% and a Boulogne win at 31%. It expects 2.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 45% chance, and both teams scoring, 49%. And about 9.3 corners.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals91%It happened
  2. Over 1.5 goals71%It happened
  3. Over 2.5 goals45%It did not happen
  4. Over 3.5 goals23%It did not happen
  5. Over 4.5 goals10%It did not happen

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.3 expected

5.2 for Boulogne and 4.1 for Reims

  1. Over 8.5 corners55%
  2. Over 9.5 corners44%
  3. Over 10.5 corners35%

Cards

4.1 expected

2.0 for Boulogne and 2.1 for Reims

  1. Over 3.5 cards59%
  2. Over 4.5 cards39%
  3. Over 5.5 cards23%

Shots

24.1 expected

13.6 for Boulogne and 10.5 for Reims

  1. Over 20.5 shots70%
  2. Over 22.5 shots57%
  3. Over 24.5 shots45%

Fouls

29.1 expected

14.7 for Boulogne and 14.3 for Reims

  1. Over 20.5 fouls93%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls87%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls77%

Saved before kickoff, on 23 October at 07:08 (Peru time). This is exactly what was published before the match.