Probably Football

Matches

Eredivisie (Netherlands)

Willem II vs PEC Zwolle

  1. Willem II28%
  2. Draw24%
  3. PEC Zwolle48%

1.46 expected goals for Willem II

1.93 expected goals for PEC Zwolle

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

PEC Zwolle has the edge (48%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a Willem II win at 28%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Willem II defence, which lets in 34% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.4 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 62% chance, and both teams scoring, 62%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Willem II

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Willem II attack−1%
  3. PEC Zwolle defence−2%

Expected goals1.46

PEC Zwolle

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. PEC Zwolle attack+6%
  2. Willem II defence+34%

Expected goals1.93

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals86%
  3. Over 2.5 goals62%
  4. Over 3.5 goals44%
  5. Over 4.5 goals25%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.6 for Willem II and 4.2 for PEC Zwolle

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

4.0 expected

1.8 for Willem II and 2.2 for PEC Zwolle

  1. Over 3.5 cards56%
  2. Over 4.5 cards36%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

29.1 expected

14.3 for Willem II and 14.8 for PEC Zwolle

  1. Over 20.5 shots88%
  2. Over 22.5 shots80%
  3. Over 24.5 shots71%

Fouls

23.4 expected

11.9 for Willem II and 11.4 for PEC Zwolle

  1. Over 20.5 fouls70%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls55%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls40%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.