Probably Football

Matches

Eredivisie (Netherlands)

Excelsior vs Twente

  1. Excelsior21%
  2. Draw24%
  3. Twente55%

1.08 expected goals for Excelsior

1.87 expected goals for Twente

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

The model makes Twente the clear favourite: 55% to win. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Twente defence, which lets in 44% fewer goals than an average team. Next comes the Twente attack, which scores 73% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.0 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 58% chance, and both teams scoring, 56%. And about 8.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Excelsior

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Excelsior attack+28%
  3. Twente defence−44%

Expected goals1.08

Twente

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Twente attack+73%
  2. Excelsior defence−21%

Expected goals1.87

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals94%
  2. Over 1.5 goals80%
  3. Over 2.5 goals58%
  4. Over 3.5 goals34%
  5. Over 4.5 goals18%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

8.8 expected

4.3 for Excelsior and 4.5 for Twente

  1. Over 8.5 corners50%
  2. Over 9.5 corners39%
  3. Over 10.5 corners30%

Cards

3.3 expected

1.3 for Excelsior and 2.0 for Twente

  1. Over 3.5 cards41%
  2. Over 4.5 cards23%
  3. Over 5.5 cards11%

Shots

26.1 expected

10.5 for Excelsior and 15.6 for Twente

  1. Over 20.5 shots78%
  2. Over 22.5 shots67%
  3. Over 24.5 shots56%

Fouls

21.2 expected

10.7 for Excelsior and 10.5 for Twente

  1. Over 20.5 fouls54%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls38%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls25%

Saved before kickoff, on (UTC). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.