Probably Football

Matches

Eredivisie (Netherlands)

Saturday 31 October, 15:00

Cambuur vs GO Ahead Eagles

  1. Cambuur26%
  2. Draw23%
  3. GO Ahead Eagles51%

1.61 expected goals for Cambuur

2.24 expected goals for GO Ahead Eagles

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

GO Ahead Eagles has the edge (51%), but not by much: a draw is at 23% and a Cambuur win at 26%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the GO Ahead Eagles attack, which scores 76% more goals than an average team. Next comes the Cambuur attack, which scores 26% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.9 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 66% chance, and both teams scoring, 68%. And about 10.2 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Cambuur

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Cambuur attack+26%
  3. GO Ahead Eagles defence−15%

Expected goals1.61

GO Ahead Eagles

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. GO Ahead Eagles attack+76%
  2. Cambuur defence−7%

Expected goals2.24

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals90%
  3. Over 2.5 goals66%
  4. Over 3.5 goals54%
  5. Over 4.5 goals34%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

10.2 expected

4.8 for Cambuur and 5.4 for GO Ahead Eagles

  1. Over 8.5 corners64%
  2. Over 9.5 corners53%
  3. Over 10.5 corners43%

Cards

3.6 expected

1.4 for Cambuur and 2.1 for GO Ahead Eagles

  1. Over 3.5 cards48%
  2. Over 4.5 cards29%
  3. Over 5.5 cards15%

Shots

27.3 expected

14.4 for Cambuur and 12.8 for GO Ahead Eagles

  1. Over 20.5 shots83%
  2. Over 22.5 shots73%
  3. Over 24.5 shots63%

Fouls

23.6 expected

10.9 for Cambuur and 12.7 for GO Ahead Eagles

  1. Over 20.5 fouls71%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls56%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls41%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 03:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.