Probably Football

Matches

Eredivisie (Netherlands)

Saturday 31 October, 15:00

Ajax vs AZ Alkmaar

  1. Ajax46%
  2. Draw24%
  3. AZ Alkmaar30%

1.98 expected goals for Ajax

1.54 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Ajax has the edge (46%), but not by much: a draw is at 24% and a AZ Alkmaar win at 30%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Ajax attack, which scores 131% more goals than an average team. Next comes the AZ Alkmaar attack, which scores 83% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.5 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 63% chance, and both teams scoring, 64%. And about 9.8 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Ajax

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Ajax attack+131%
  3. AZ Alkmaar defence−43%

Expected goals1.98

AZ Alkmaar

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. AZ Alkmaar attack+83%
  2. Ajax defence−38%

Expected goals1.55

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals97%
  2. Over 1.5 goals87%
  3. Over 2.5 goals63%
  4. Over 3.5 goals47%
  5. Over 4.5 goals28%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.8 expected

5.3 for Ajax and 4.5 for AZ Alkmaar

  1. Over 8.5 corners60%
  2. Over 9.5 corners50%
  3. Over 10.5 corners40%

Cards

3.9 expected

1.6 for Ajax and 2.3 for AZ Alkmaar

  1. Over 3.5 cards56%
  2. Over 4.5 cards36%
  3. Over 5.5 cards21%

Shots

26.4 expected

15.5 for Ajax and 10.9 for AZ Alkmaar

  1. Over 20.5 shots79%
  2. Over 22.5 shots69%
  3. Over 24.5 shots58%

Fouls

24.4 expected

11.2 for Ajax and 13.3 for AZ Alkmaar

  1. Over 20.5 fouls76%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls63%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls48%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 03:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.