Probably Football

Matches

Eredivisie (Netherlands)

Saturday 31 October, 12:45

Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen

  1. Heerenveen49%
  2. Draw25%
  3. NEC Nijmegen26%

1.95 expected goals for Heerenveen

1.39 expected goals for NEC Nijmegen

Goal probabilities corrected with this league's own past results.

In short

Heerenveen has the edge (49%), but not by much: a draw is at 25% and a NEC Nijmegen win at 26%. The biggest factor in these numbers is the Heerenveen attack, which scores 64% more goals than an average team. Next comes the NEC Nijmegen attack, which scores 60% more goals than an average team. It expects 3.3 goals in total: over 2.5 goals has a 61% chance, and both teams scoring, 61%. And about 9.6 corners.

Why?

The model starts from the goals of an average team. Then it moves them up or down for what is different in this match.

Heerenveen

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. Playing at home+11%
  2. Heerenveen attack+64%
  3. NEC Nijmegen defence−21%

Expected goals1.95

NEC Nijmegen

An average team scores 1.36 against an average team

  1. NEC Nijmegen attack+60%
  2. Heerenveen defence−36%

Expected goals1.39

Attack and defence are measured against every team each side has played, taking into account how strong each opponent was.

Goals

  1. Over 0.5 goals96%
  2. Over 1.5 goals85%
  3. Over 2.5 goals61%
  4. Over 3.5 goals43%
  5. Over 4.5 goals25%

Corners, cards and more

These numbers do not get the league correction yet. Trust them a little less than the goal numbers.

Corners

9.6 expected

5.1 for Heerenveen and 4.5 for NEC Nijmegen

  1. Over 8.5 corners58%
  2. Over 9.5 corners47%
  3. Over 10.5 corners37%

Cards

3.3 expected

1.3 for Heerenveen and 2.0 for NEC Nijmegen

  1. Over 3.5 cards42%
  2. Over 4.5 cards24%
  3. Over 5.5 cards12%

Shots

28.5 expected

16.2 for Heerenveen and 12.2 for NEC Nijmegen

  1. Over 20.5 shots86%
  2. Over 22.5 shots78%
  3. Over 24.5 shots68%

Fouls

23.1 expected

10.2 for Heerenveen and 12.9 for NEC Nijmegen

  1. Over 20.5 fouls68%
  2. Over 22.5 fouls53%
  3. Over 24.5 fouls38%

Saved before kickoff, on 30 October at 01:06 (Peru time). This is how it was published and how it will be checked.